先进材料领域关键技术预见的研究

The research on the key technology foresight in the fields of advanced materials

坚持创新在我国现代化建设全局中的核心地位,把科技自立自强作为国家发展的战略支撑,需要通过开展技术预见科学判断和前瞻把握先进材料领域的“卡脖子”问题、关键核心技术和未来发展趋势,回答先进材料如何保障国家经济建设、国防安全和人民群众对美好生活向往的一些关键性问题。本研究旨在综合利用无监督机器学习方法、复杂网络理论以及链路预测算法,开展先进材料领域的热点和前沿识别和技术预见,探索性识别出先进材料9个子领域的56个技术方向课题。同时组织开展德尔菲调查,依靠专家智慧,综合考量未来愿景、经济发展、国防建设和民生需求,遴选出面向2035年的10项优先发展技术方向,为党和政府科学决策服务、为推动创新驱动转型和国防安全提供重要的战略支撑。

Adhering to the core position of innovation in the overall situation of China's modernization drive and taking self-reliance and self-improvement in science and technology as the strategic support for national development,we need to make scientific judgment and foresee the"neck"problems,key core technologies and future development trend through carrying out technology foresight in the field of advanced materials,and answer some key questions,such as how advanced materials could guarantee national economic construction,national defense security and people's yearn in the pursuit of a better life.The purpose of this research is to carry out the hot spot and frontier identification and technology foresight in the field of advanced materials by comprehensively using unsupervised machine learning method,complex network theory and link prediction algorithm,and to exploringly identify 56 technical topics in 9 sub-fields of advanced materials.At the same time,Delphi survey has been organized to select 10 technology directions for preferential development for 2035 based on expert wisdom and the comprehensive consideration of future vision,economic development,national defense construction and people's livelihood needs,so as to provide important strategic support for scientific decision-making of the Party and government,innovation-driven transformation and national defense security.