中国国有经济投资对非国有经济投资的动态影响研究

Research on Dynamic Influence of State-owned Capital Investment on Non-State Capital Investment in China

中国国有经济投资与非国有经济投资之间的动态关系始终是改革历程中的焦点问题。在理论上推导国有与非国有经济投资关系,应用协整模型和误差修正模型进行实证检验。研究发现,国有与非国有经济投资之间不存在长期均衡关系。新世纪以来,国有经济投资能够拉动非国有经济投资增长,但后危机时期的拉动效应较危机前明显下降,且拉动效应具有滞后性;同期国有经济投资会挤出非国有经济投资;非国有经济投资受两者之间长期均衡关系制约。

The relationship between State-owned capital investm ent and Non-State capital investment has always been the focal point in the process of China's all-round reform.Based on the theoretical analysis,this paper carries out empirical analysis on the relationship above using Cointegration and Error Correction Model.Study shows that there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between State-owned capital investment and Non-State capital investment.In the 2000s,State-owned capital investment could actively promote Non-State capital investment,and yet the driving impact of the State-owned capital investment on the Non-State capital investment obviously declined compared to the pre-crisis levels.Meanwhile,the pulling effect of State-owned capital investment on the Non-State capital investment was lagging behind.In the same period,State-owned capital investment crowded out Non-state capital investment.In addition,Non-state capital investment is constrained by the long-term equilibrium relationship above since 2001.