非洲猪瘟对我国居民消费价格指数影响研究——基于双重差分模型的分析

Research on the Impact of ASF on CPI——Analysis Based on DID Model

非洲猪瘟爆发以来,我国猪肉价格总体上处于上升态势,甚至达到历史最高点,居民消费倾向随之发生波动。非洲猪瘟、CPI和居民消费倾向之间是否存在因果关系亟需科学验证。本文选取2017年8月至2019年12月省际月度面板数据,利用双重差分模型分析非洲猪瘟及其传播对CPI的影响,并对消费者进行随机抽样,分析非洲猪瘟影响下的居民消费倾向。实证结果表明:非洲猪瘟影响生猪供给,从而影响猪肉价格,进而对CPI产生显著影响;非洲猪瘟对居民消费产生影响,大部分消费者选择适当减少猪肉消费。

Since the outbreak of ASF, pork prices have generally been on the rise, even reaching an all-time high, the consumption tendency of residents fluctuates accordingly. Whether there is a causal relationship between the ASF, CPI and the consumption tendency of residents needs scientific verification.In this paper, we selected the provinces’ monthly panel data from August 2017 to December 2019, then we use DID model to analyse the impact of ASF on CPI. Further more, we conducted a random sample of consumers to analyze the propensity of residents to consume under the influence of the ASF. The empirical results show that the ASF affects the supply of pigs, thus affecting pork prices, and then influences the CPI.ASF influences consumption tendency of residents, most consumers choose to reduce pork consumption appropriately under ASF.