消费者信心指数与居民消费价格指数关联效应研究——基于“有限理性”理论的分析

Research on the Correlation Effect of Consumer Confidence Index and Consumer Price Index——Based on the theory of“bounded rationality”

消费者信心指数与居民消费价格指数之间存在一定的关联性。本文基于行为金融学的"有限理性"理论,通过构建向量自回归模型,对消费者信心指数与居民消费价格指数之间的关联效应进行深入研究,研究发现:消费者信心指数对居民消费价格指数具有显著预测作用,但消费者信心指数变动对居民消费价格指数变动的影响有限,可作为预测居民消费价格指数的变动先行参考指标;居民消费价格指数的变动对消费者信心指数的影响显著,但需根据时间长短而定。最后,本文提出促进消费扩容提质、稳定居民消费价格指数等建议。

There is a certain correlation between the consumer confidence index and the consumer price index.Based on the ‘bounded rationality’theory of behavioral finance,this paper conducts in-depth research on the correlation effect between consumer confidence index and consumer price index by constructing a vector autoregressive model.The study found that the consumer confidence index has a significant predictive effect on the consumer price index,but the change in the consumer confidence index has a limited impact on the consumer price index.It can be used as a first reference indicator for predicting the change in the consumer price index.Changes in the consumer price index have a significant impact on the consumer confidence index,but it depends on the length of time.Finally,this article puts forward suggestions for promoting expansion and quality of consumption and stabilizing the consumer price index.