货币政策工具、市场信心与PPI关系研究

Research on the relationship between monetary policy tools, market confidence and PPI

为厘清货币政策、市场信心与工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)的关系,本文基于我国的月度数据样本,通过中介效应模型实证研究了货币政策工具对PPI的影响以及市场信心的中间传导效应。研究表明:总体上存款准备金与货币供应量对PPI的影响显著,在稳价格方面发挥了重要作用。同时,在货币政策工具影响PPI的过程中,市场信心发挥了重要的传导渠道作用,货币政策工具可以通过企业家信心和消费者信心渠道,间接地影响工PPI。此外,货币政策工具对PPI的直接传递效应也是存在的,市场信心的中介效应属于部分中介效应。

In order to clarify the relationship between monetary policy, market confidence and producer price index(PPI), this paper, based on monthly data samples from China, conducts an empirical study on the impact of monetary policy tools on PPI and the intermediate pass-through effect of market confidence through the mediating effect model. The results show that on the whole, the deposit reserve and money supply have a significant impact on PPI and play an important role in stabilizing the price. At the same time, in the process of monetary policy instruments influencing PPI, market confidence plays an important role as a transmission channel. Monetary policy instruments can indirectly influence PPI through the channels of entrepreneur confidence and consumer confidence.In addition, the direct pass-through effect of monetary policy instruments on PPI also exists, and the mediating effect of market confidence is a partial mediating effect.