跳“农门”的大学生与城镇化——1990-2019年我国高等教育对城镇化直接影响系数初析

The Impact of Rural University Students on Urbanization

中国高等教育的大众化进程有力地推进了城镇化,随着高等教育进入普及化阶段,高等教育对城镇化的影响还会增强。文章针对中国高等教育发展在多大程度上影响了城镇化的问题,提出可以因上大学而从农村转移至城镇的人口数占每年城镇人口外生增量的比例为高等教育对城镇化的直接影响系数,并探讨了计算这一系数的具体方法,同时通过所可能采集到的数据,计算出近30年来高等教育对城镇化的直接影响系数和贡献值,计算结果表明,这一系数已从5%左右上升到20%以上,并呈继续上升趋势。

The process of mass higher education in China has strongly driven the country’s urbanization.As higher education enters the popularization stage,the impact of higher education on urbanization will increase.In investigating to what extent the development of higher education in China has affected urbanization,the article proposes that the proportion of the population that has been transferred from rural to urban areas due to university education to the annual increase in urban population be used as the direct impact coefficient of higher education on urbanization.The specific method of calculating this coefficient is also discussed.Meanwhile,the direct impact coefficient and contribution value of higher education on urbanization over the past 30 years are calculated based on the data collected.The results indicate that this coefficient has changed from around 5%to over 20%and will continue to rise.