人力资本视角下的养老金替代率研究

Pension Replacement Rate From Perspective of Human Capital

养老保险制度的完善和提高养老金水平是全世界关注的热点问题,近年来从人力资本角度对养老金替代率方面研究较少。本文从人力资本视角出发,构建世代交叠模型探究健康人力资本和教育人力资本对经济增长的影响进而影响养老金替代水平,并对教育人力资本进行了私人与公共的区分。此外本文对延迟退休政策和全面二孩政策进行了敏感性分析。研究结果表明在给定养老保险缴费率的情形下,存在最优的公共健康税率和公共教育税率组合可以使经济增长速度最快,并维持较高的养老金替代率。延迟退休政策不利于养老金替代率的提高;全面二孩政策的推行有利于养老金水平的提高。因此,在养老保险制度改革的过程中,可以通过减少企业社保缴费比例减少延迟退休对企业造成的缴费压力。继续有序推进全面二孩政策,以保证养老保险的运行稳定和维持较高的养老金替代率。同时,公共教育支出和公共健康支出仍有促进社会经济增长的空间,我国在公共支出方面仍应该适当地加大人力资本的投入。

The improvement of the endowment insurance system and the improvement of pension benefits are the hot issues around the world,while the pension replacement rate has been rarely studied from the perspective of human capital in recent years.This paper explores the impact of health human capital and education human capital on economic growth and hence on the level of pension replacement from the perspective of human capital,and makes a distinction between private and public education human capital.In addition,a sensitivity analysis is conducted on the effects of delayed retirement policies and comprehensive two-child policies.In addition,sensitivity analysis is also conducted on the policy of delaying retirement and the universal two-child policy.The results show that the optimal combination of public health tax rate and public education tax rate can make the economy grow fastest and maintain a high pension replacement rate under a given endowment insurance contribution rate.The policy of delaying retirement is not conducive to the improvement of pension replacement rate.While,the implementation of the universal two-child policy is conducive to the improvement of pension levels.Therefore,in the process of the reform of the endowment insurance system,the government can reduce the contribution pressure caused by the late retirement on enterprises by reducing the proportion of social security contributions,and continue to promote the universal two-child policy in an orderly manner,so as to ensure the stable operation of the endowment insurance and maintain a high pension replacement rate.At the same time,public education expenditure and public health expenditure still have some space to promote social and economic growth,and China should appropriately increase the input of human capital in public expenditure.