基于系统综述的新型冠状病毒肺炎与2009年H1N1流感大流行基本传染数研究

Study of R of COVID-19 and pandemic influenza A(H1N1)2009 based on systematic review

目的通过系统综述方法,基于基本传染数(R0)比较新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)与2009年H1N1流感大流行的传播能力。方法通过检索中国知网、万方数据库、维普数据库、PubMed、Embase、Web of Science、BioRxiv和MedRxiv数据库,2名审查员对COVID-19和2009年H1N1流感大流行的R0相关研究进行独立筛选、提取数据和计算,并对提取的2次疫情的R0进行系统性总结和比较。结果共纳入163篇文献(包括54篇2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行相关文章和109篇COVID-19相关文章)。COVID-19在世界流行的R0中位数为2.860(四分位数范围IQR:2.350~3.546),高于2009年H1N1流感大流行的R0中位数(1.508,IQR:1.336~1.836)。中国COVID-19的R0中位数为2.930(IQR:2.215~3.453),施行严格交通管制前COVID-19的R0中位数为3.430(IQR:2.500~4.710),高于之后的2.500(IQR:1.673~3.030)。结论COVID-19的传播能力强于2009年甲型H1N1流感。中国采取严格交通管制措施后,能够减缓COVID-19的传播。

Objective The compare transmission efficiency of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)and influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 by a systematic review based on R0 calculation.Methods We conducted a literature retrieval by using the databases of CNKI,WanFang Data,VIP,PubMed,Embase,Web of Science,BioRxiv and MedRxiv for the research of COVID-19 and influenza A(H1N1)pdm09.Two reviewers independently screened the literatures,extracted and calculated related data and systematically compared the R0 of the two outbreaks.Results A total of 163 papers were included[54 about influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 109 about COVID-19].The median R0 of COVID-19[2.860(IQR:2.350-3.546)]was higher than that of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09[1.508(IQR:1.336-1.836)]in the world.In China,the median R0 of COVID-19 was2.930(IQR:2.215–3.453)and the median R0 of COVID-19 before implementing strict traffic control strategy in Wuhan[3.430(IQR:2.500-4.710)]was higher than that after the strict strategy[2.500(IQR:1.673-3.030)].Conclusion The transmission efficiency of COVID-19 is stronger than influenza A(H1N1)pdm09.The spread of COVID-19 in China has been controlled owe to the strict traffic control strategy.