中国与东盟国家交通基础设施互联互通的经贸影响——基于GTAP模型的研究

The Economic and Trade Impacts of the Connectivity of Transportation Infrastructure between China and Association of Southeast Asian Nations——A Study with GTAP Model

“一带一路”倡议下中国与东盟国家推进交通基础设施的互联互通,将有效降低陆路贸易的时间成本,促进双边的经济增长与国际贸易。文章运用GTAP模型和最新的V10数据,测算了中国与东盟国家交通基础设施互联互通的经贸影响,并分析不同陆路通道影响的差异。结果表明,交通基础设施互联互通将有效削减陆路贸易时间成本,给中国与东盟国家带来经济和贸易的增长,并有助于实现全球经济的帕累托改进。交通基础设施的互联互通对中国、东盟国家的经贸影响存在较大差异。在三条陆路通道中,东线通道对中国经济和贸易增长具有最强的拉动作用。

Under the background of"One Belt and One Road"initiative,the connectivity of transportation infrastructure between China and ASEAN countries could effectively lower down the time cost of land trade,and foster economic growth and international trade.Appling the GTAP model and the newest database,Version 10,this paper estimates the impacts of the connectivity of transportation infrastructure between China and ASEAN countries on economy and trade,and evaluates the role of different land routes.We found that China and ASEAN countries would experience the growth of economy and trade,anda Pareto improvement of global economy would achieve.A large disparity exists on the impacts of the connectivity of transportation infrastructure between China and ASEAN countries on the total imports and exports among China,ASEAN countries,and other countries.The three land routes have much different economics and trade effects,and among them,the east-line land route has the largest contribution to China's economy and trade growth.