行业视角下的第三产业发展与就业协调性研究——基于改进的结构偏离度分析

The Research on the Coordination of Tertiary Industry Development and Employment——Based on the Improved Structural Deviation Degree

文章运用改进的结构偏离度,在修正了各行业“产值比重与就业比重合理的结构比例为1”的假定基础上,对2004-2018年我国第三产业细分行业产值结构与就业结构的协调性进行了研究。研究表明,各行业的产值结构与就业结构并不协调,且差异明显。现代服务业中的金融、信息传输软件和信息服务、租赁和商务服务等行业发展较快,对就业拉动效果显著,房地产业隐性失业问题严重;传统服务业中的交通运输仓储和邮政、住宿和餐饮、居民服务等行业劳动力市场已经饱和,但批发和零售业依然有较强的就业吸纳能力;其他公共服务行业除了教育和公共管理和社会组织业以外,普遍存在人员富余的情况,据此提出促进产业与就业协调发展的对策。

The paper uses the improved structural deviation degree,which revises the assumption that the reasonable proportion of output value to employment is 1,to study the coordination of the output value structure and employment structure of China's tertiary industry from 2004 to 2018.The research shows that the output value structure of each industry is not in harmony with the employment structure,and the difference is obvious.Financial,information transmission software and information services,leasing and business services in the modern service industry have developed rapidly,which has a remarkable effect on employment,and the hidden unemployment problem in the real estate industry is serious;the labor market of transportation,storage and postal,accommodation and catering,residential services and other industries in traditional service industries has been saturated,but the wholesale and retail trade still has a strong ability to absorb employment;other public service industries,in addition to education and public management and social organization industry,there is a widespread surplus of personnel.Therefore,this paper puts forward the corresponding countermea-sures to promote the coordinated development of industry and employment.