“一带一路”背景下中国对外贸易效率研究——基于新亚欧大陆桥19国的经验数据

Research on the Efficiency of China’s Foreign Trade under the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’:Based on the Empirical Data of 19 Countries on the New Eurasian Continental Bridge

文章采用随机前沿引力模型,从出口角度分析测算了2004-2018年中国对新亚欧大陆桥经济走廊沿线19个主要国家的贸易效率及潜力,采用随机前沿引力模型,估计了中国对走廊沿线19个国家的出口效率及潜力。研究结果表明:在贸易效率估计中,沿线国家的人均GDP、地理距离、共同边界、WTO组织、贸易自由度,及内陆国等变量,均与理论预期一致。贸易非效率项因素中,政府廉洁指数、贸易自由度、劳动力规模、最终消费支出等显著促进中国对沿线国的出口效率。与预期理论不同的结果是,关税水平与被解释变量呈现出了负相关。金融自由度的提升并不一定能促进贸易效率,该指标对中国出口沿线国的贸易并不显著。FDI净流入规模对中国出口贸易效率并不显著,汇率估计结果显著。同时,文章根据结论对中国出口贸易效率的提升提出了针对性建议。

This paper uses stochastic frontier gravity model to analyze and calculate the trade efficiency and potential of China to19 major countries along the new eurasian land bridge economic corridor from 2004 to 2018 from the perspective of export. It uses stochastic frontier gravity model to estimate the export efficiency and potential of China to 19 countries along the corridor. The results show that in the estimation of trade efficiency, the per capita GDP, geographical distance, bilateral boundary, WTO membership, free trade agreement, and land-locked countries of the countries along the belt and road are all consistent with the theoretical expectation.Among the non-efficiency factors of trade, government integrity index, trade freedom, labor force scale and final consumption expenditure significantly promote the export efficiency of China to the countries along the belt and road. Different from the expectation theory, the tariff level is negatively correlated with the explained variables. Increased financial freedom does not necessarily promote trade efficiency,which is not significant for trade with countries along China’s export routes. The net inflow of FDI to China’s export trade efficiency is not significant. Exchange rate estimates are significant. Based on the conclusions, this paper puts forward some suggestions for improving the efficiency of China’s export trade.