产业共性技术创新扩散机理建模与仿真分析

Mechanism Modeling and Simulation Analysis of Industrial Generic Technology Innovation Diffusion

产业共性技术潜在价值的发挥依赖于其市场有效创新扩散。针对产业共性技术扩散面临的多重失灵困境,在对共性技术特征属性、扩散主体行为、创新扩散过程进行分析基础上,根据SEIR模型和产业共性技术创新的扩散特点,文章构建产业共性技术创新扩散机理模型,进行基本再生数、扩散平衡点稳定性分析,阐释产业共性技术创新扩散机理。同时,构建相应的系统动力学模型,进行产业共性技术扩散仿真分析,揭示关键变量的影响效果规律。研究表明:系统基本再生数是决定产业共性技术创新扩散能否持续的关键。潜在需求企业二次研发采纳和研发成果应用转化率的提高,以及有效的知识产权保护能够促进产业共性技术扩散效果的提升,而企业的搭便车行为和路径依赖心理具有负向作用。企业技术再升级行为会降低产业共性技术扩散速度,但通过研发与应用的循环往复有利于其潜在价值的充分发掘。据此,文章提出了产业共性技术创新扩散相关对策建议。

The exploration of potential value of industrial generic technologies depends on its effective innovation diffusion in the market.In view of the multiple failure dilemmas faced by the diffusion of industrial generic technologies,based on the analysis of the generic technical attributes,the behavior of diffusion agents,and the process of innovation diffusion,according to the SEIR model and the characteristics of industrial generic technology innovation diffusion,a mechanism model of industrial generic technology innovation diffusion is constructed.Analyze the basic reproduction number and the stability of the equilibrium point of diffusion,and explain the diffusion mechanism of industry generic technology innovation.Simultaneously,the corresponding system dynamics model is established,and the simulation analysis of industry generic technology diffusion is carried out to reveal the law of the impact of key variables.Research shows that the basic regeneration number of the system is the key to determining whether the diffusion of industrial generic technology innovation can be sustained.The improvement of potential demand companies'adoption of secondary R&D and application conversion rate of R&D results,as well as effective intellectual property protection can promote the diffusion effect of industrial generic technologies,while the free-riding behavior and path dependence psychology of enterprises have a negative effect.The re-upgrading of enterprise technology will reduce the diffusion speed of industrial generic technology,but the cycle of R&D and application is conducive to the full exploration of its potential value.Based on this,countermeasures and suggestions related to the innovation diffusion of industrial generic technologies are put forward.