基于贝叶斯网络的水面蒸发评估模型研究

Research on Evaluation Model of Water Surface Evaporation Based on BN

针对目前水面蒸发模型中对于各因素之间关联性考虑不足的问题,从太阳辐射、平均风速和气温日较差三个角度,选取云层厚度、温度和降雨等十个因素构建了快速评估水面蒸发程度的指标体系,并基于贝叶斯网络建立了水面蒸发评估模型,将该方法应用于白马湖和鄱阳湖的水面蒸发评估,结果表明两湖区水面蒸发损失程度均为中等,验证了该评估模型的有效性。

Aiming at the lack of correlation among the factors affecting water surface evaporation,ten factors including temperature,rainfall and the thickness of the clouds are selected from three aspects of solar radiation,average wind speed and daily temperature range to establish an index system for quickly assessing the degree of water surface evaporation.And then a water surface evaporation assessment model was established based on BN.The model was applied to evaluate water surface evaporation in Baima and Poyang lake.The results show that the water surface evaporation loss of the two lakes is moderate,and the effectiveness of the evaluation model is verified.