结构性减税的普惠性效应研究——基于可计算一般均衡模型

Research on the Inclusive Effect of Structural Tax Reduction:Based on Computable General Equilibrium Model

结构性减税是我国政府近年来实施的重要经济政策之一,肩负着减轻税负和促进经济的使命。文章首先构建了符合中国税制结构的CGE模型,然后据此模拟了中国结构性减税政策对各个行业的影响。研究表明,结构性减税不具有普惠性,体现在:增值税税率下调主要有利于第二产业的发展,但因资本外流效应不利于第一产业发展,以及因财政紧缩效应不利于以公共服务为主的第三产业发展;小微企业所得税减免对多数行业发展都有利,却由于财政紧缩效应不利于以公共服务为主的第三产业发展;个人所得税扣除额提高有利于全行业劳动者提高税后收入,但是从行业产出变化来看,个人所得税扣除额提高有利于第一和第二产业产出增加,却不利于以公共服务为主的第三产业产出增加。

Structural tax reduction is one of the important economic policies implemented by our government in recentyears,which shoulders the mission of reducing tax burden and promoting economy. This paper first constructs a CGE mod-el in line with China’s tax structure,and then simulates the impact of China’s structural tax reduction policy on various in-dustries. The research shows that structural tax reduction is not inclusive,which is reflected in the fact that the reductionof VAT rate is mainly conducive to the development of the secondary industry,but the capital outflow effect is not conducive to the development of the primary industry,and the fiscal tightening effect is not conducive to the development of thetertiary industry,which mainly focuses on public services;the income tax reduction of small and micro enterprises is beneficial to the development of most industries,but it is not conducive to the development of the tertiary industry mainlybased on public services due to the effect of fiscal tightening;the increase of personal income tax deduction is conduciveto the increase of after tax income of workers in the whole industry. However,from the perspective of industrial outputchanges,the increase of personal income tax deduction is conducive to the increase of the output of the primary and secondary industries,but not conducive to the increase of the output of the tertiary industry dominated by public services.