以色列的西岸定居点问题持论、吞并变因及可能走向

Arguments,Variation of Annexation,and Possible Trends in Israeli Settlements in the West Bank

吞并约旦河西岸全部定居点,成为"中东和平新计划"(Peace to Prosperity)不同于之前其他巴以和平解决方案的一个突出的特点。50多年来以色列在约旦河西岸实施的扩张定居点政策,2020年的"中东和平新计划",正是对1967年"阿隆计划"(Allon Plan)战略思路的承续和发展。"中东和平新计划"公布以来,以色列吞并西岸定居点的进程经历了有时间表到无时间表两个阶段。当下,以色列对西岸定居点吞并与否,存在三种可能走向:略做暂停,重新启动;永久搁置,维持现状;完成立法,暂不实施。对处于边界未定、政治进程不断变化之中的以色列来说,复杂的西岸定居点问题会长期存在下去,不可能一蹴而就地解决,它的走向也将一直存在变数,"中东和平新计划"的命运也将不可预料。

The annexation of all settlements in the West Bank has become a prominent feature of the"Peace to Prosperity",which is different from other previous Palestinian-Israeli peace solutions.Israel’s policy of expanding settlements in the West Bank for more than 50 years and the"Peace to Prosperity"in 2020 are precisely the continuation and evolution of the strategic thinking of the"Allon Plan"proposed in 1967.Since the announcement of the"Peace to Prosperity",the process of Israel’s annexation in the West Bank has gone from a timed schedule to an untimed one.Currently,there are three possibilities for Israel’s annexation in the West Bank:a temporary suspension and a restart;a permanent shelving to maintain the status quo;completion of legislation and no implementation for the time being.For Israel,whose borders are undetermined,and the political progress is constantly changing,the resolution of this complex issue will not be achieved overnight.The problem will persist for a long time,and its direction will always be variable.As a result,the fate of the"Peace to Prosperity"will also be unpredictable.