重庆地区艾滋病病毒感染者和艾滋病患者流行病学特征分析

Epidemiological characteristics of HIV/AIDS in Chongqing

目的分析重庆市1995-2018年艾滋病病毒(human immunodeficiency virus,HIV)感染者和艾滋病(acquired immune deficiency syndrome,AIDS)患者(简称HIV感染者/AIDS患者)年龄变化流行特征,为重庆市制定艾滋病防控相关策略提供科学依据。方法利用国家疾病监测信息报告系统中艾滋病综合防治信息的相关资料,对重庆市1995-2018年HIV感染者/AIDS患者的相关数据进行回顾性分析。结果重庆地区1995-2018年HIV感染者/AIDS患者累计报告55422例,男女比例3.17∶1。1995-2018年新诊断HIV感染者/AIDS患者数量呈现上升趋势。每年新诊断病例占重庆市全人口比例(1/10万)变化趋势分析:1995-2003年新诊断病例数无明显变化,而2003-2008年开始呈现上升趋势(β=0.8822,R^(2)=0.939,P=0.001),2008-2018年上升速度较前明显增快(β=2.3169,R^(2)=0.980,P<0.01)。新诊断HIV感染者/AIDS患者按照年龄段分层分析年龄占比年度变化趋势:≤14岁人群占比在1995-2007年波动起伏较大,2007年之后基本呈现下降趋势(R^(2)=0.839,P<0.01);15~岁人群占比在1995-2006年呈下降趋势,2007-2010年经历短暂上升后(R^(2)=0.851,P=0.078),2011年开始逐渐下降(R^(2)=0.491,P=0.036);20~岁人群人群占比整体呈下降趋势;40~岁人群占比在1995-2001年呈下降趋势,2002-2010年经历上升后(R^(2)=0.901,P<0.01),2011年开始逐渐下降(R^(2)=0.799,P<0.01);≥50岁人群占比呈现持续上升趋势,并2006年之后呈现快速上升趋势(R^(2)=0.995,P<0.01)。结论重庆地区新诊断HIV感染者/AIDS患者2008年后开始呈现快速上升趋势,≤14岁人群占比逐渐下降,中青年人群占比整体呈现下降趋势,而老年患者呈现快速上升趋势。

Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of HIV/AIDS in Chongqing during 1995 and 2018,and to provide a scientific evidence for Chongqing to propose strategies for HIV prevention and control.Methods A descriptive epidemiological analysis was performed on HIV/AIDS data in Chongqing from 1995 to 2018 retrieved from National Disease Surveillance Information Reporting System.Results From 1995 to 2018,a total of 55422 HIV/AIDS patients were reported in Chongqing,with male to female case ratio of 3.17∶1,and the number of newly diagnosed HIV/AIDS cases showed an upward trend.The annual trend analysis for new cases per 100000 population showed no significant change in 1995-2003,an increase in 2003-2008(The regression coefficient=0.8822,R^(2)=0.939,P=0.001),and a rapid increase in 2008-2018(regression coefficient=2.3169,R^(2)=0.980,P<0.01).The ratio of newly diagnosed HIV/AIDS patients fluctuated in 1995-2007,and decreased after 2007(R^(2)=0.839,P<0.01)in≤14 age group;it showed a downward trend in 1995-2006,after a brief rise in 2007-2010(R^(2)=0.851,P=0.078),began to decline gradually(R^(2)=0.491,P=0.036)in 15-age group.The ratio of newly diagnosed HIV/AIDS patients showed down-ward trend in 20-age group while it showed a upward trend in≥50 age group,especially after 2006(R^(2)=0.995,P<0.01),in 40-age group,it showed a down-ward trend in 1995-2001,after a brief rise in 2002-2010(R^(2)=0.901,P<0.01),began to decline gradually(R^(2)=0.799,P<0.01).Conclusions The newly diagnosed HIV/AIDS cases in Chongqing show a rapid upward trend after 2008,while the ratio of elderly patients increases rapidly.