货币政策对商业银行过度风险承担的影响研究——基于收益与风险均衡的视角

Research on the Influence of Monetary Policy on Excessive Risk-taking of Commercial Banks——from the Perspective of Equilibrium of Income and Risk

基于76家商业银行2014—2018年的平衡面板数据,通过构建面板回归模型,探讨了货币政策对商业银行过度风险承担的影响。研究发现:商业银行的确存在过度风险承担现象,且中小银行过度风险承担现象更严重;高利率货币政策会促进商业银行过度风险承担;数量型货币政策与货币政策立场中,高存款准备金率或者高实际货币供给增长率会抑制商业银行过度风险承担,但对系统性重要银行,这种抑制作用将会减弱;商业银行资产规模越大,其过度风险承担越低;商业银行过度风险承担具有明显的逆周期性。

Based on the balance panel data of 76 commercial banks from 2014 to 2018,this paper discusses the influence of monetary policy on excessive risk-taking of commercial banks by constructing panel regression model.It is found that there is excessive risk-taking in commercial banks,especially in small and medium-sized banks,and that high interest rate monetary policy will promote excessive risk-taking;in quantitative monetary policy and monetary policy stance,high reserve requirement or high real money supply growth rate will restrain excessive risk-taking of commercial banks,but for systemically important banks,this restraint will weaken;the larger the assets scale of commercial banks,the lower the excessive risk-taking,and the excessive risk-taking of commercial banks is obviously counter-cyclical.