民航业国际化与开放型经济发展动态关系研究——基于我国1985—2018年时间序列数据的分析

A Study on the Dynamic Relationship Between Chinese Civil Aviation Industry Internationalization and Open Economy Development——Analysis of time series data from 1985 to 2018 in China

改革开放以来,我国民航业国际化与开放型经济发展水平迅速提升,为社会经济发展贡献了重要力量。从经济史角度出发,系统梳理建国以来中国民航业国际化与开放型经济的发展历程,分析二者之间的理论关系。通过变异系数法分别计算其1985—2018年的发展指数,并建立VAR模型实证检验二者之间的关系。结果表明:我国民航业国际化与开放型经济发展具有互相促进的长期均衡关系,二者互为对方的格兰杰因果原因。未来应根据二者的发展变迁特点,构建更加有效动态协调发展机制。

Since the reform and opening up, Chinese civil aviation industry internationalization and the rapid development of the open economy have contributed to the development of social economy. From the perspective of economic history, this paper systematically reviews the development of open economy and the internationalization of Chinese civil aviation industry since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, and analyzes the theoretical relationship between them. The variable coefficient method is employed to calculate the development indexes from 1985 to 2018 separately, and the VAR model is established to test the relationship between them. The results show that there exits a long-term equilibrium relationship between the internationalization of civil aviation industry and the development of open economy in China, and they are the Granger reasons of each other. In the future, a more effective dynamic and coordinated development mechanism should be established according to the characteristics of their development and changes.