互联网普及对城市外来劳动力流入的影响——基于我国255个地级市的实证检验

Research on the Impact of Internet Popularization on Urban Labor Inflow——Evidence based on 255 Prefecture—level Cities in China

互联网普及度不断提高条件下劳动力流动的分析框架,为研究城市化进程与劳动力市场发展提供了新的视角。文章基于我国255个地级市2001-2015年的数据,构建面板数据的空间杜宾模型并结合工具变量法进行实证分析,研究互联网普及对城市劳动力流入的影响。结果显示:研究期间内互联网普及并未吸引劳动力流入,反而促使劳动力流出,说明互联网主要是通过平台效应对劳动力流动产生影响;互联网普及对城市外来劳动力流入直接抑制作用在长短期内均存在,且长期这种作用会得到进一步增强,但却未能通过间接效应影响周边城市劳动力流入;互联网普及的抑制作用存在阶段性差异,仅在2008年以后具有显著的影响;不同区域下互联网普及对劳动力流入的抑制行为并非一致,互联网普及对西部地区城市劳动力流入的抑制作用显著,对东、中部地区城市劳动力流入没有显著影响。这些发现有助于进一步理解互联网对劳动力流动的作用,统筹推进互联网与经济社会融合发展。

The analytical framework of labor mobility under the condition of increasing internet popularization has provided a new perspective for studying urbanization and labor market development.Based on the data of 255 prefecture-level cities in China from 2001 to 2015,a spatial Dubin model of panel data was constructed,and an empirical analysis was performed in conjunction with the instrumental variable method to study the impact of internet popularization on urban labor inflows.The results show that during the study period,Internet popularization can not attract labor inflows,but promote labor outflows,indicating that the Internet mainly affects labor flows through"Platform effect";The internet’s direct suppression of labor inflows in cities exists in the short and long term,and in the long run,this effect will be further strengthened,but it will not affect the labor inflow of surrounding cities through indirect effects.There is a periodical difference in the inhibitory effect of Internet popularization,which has a significant impact only after 2008;The suppression of labor inflows by internet penetration in different regions is not consistent.Internet popularization has a significant inhibitory effect on urban labor inflows in western regions,and has no significant impact in eastern and central regions.These findings help to further understand the role of the Internet in labor mobility,and to coordinate the development of the integration of the internet with the economy and society.