跨境资本流动宏观审慎监管框架与效果检验

The Macro-Prudeatial Regulatory Framework for Cro8-Border Capital Flows and the Effect Test

通过构建包括监管工具一操作目标一最终目标的跨境资本流动宏观审慎监管框架,利用中国2010年1月至2020年3月的数据检验监管工具对操作目标和最终目标的影响,研究发现:现有的宏观审慎监管工具对经常账户下的跨境资本流出和流入的影响不显著;全口径跨境融资管理对短期资本流动具有一定的影响,银行结售汇和外汇风险准备金率、境外金融机构境内存放存款准备金率等价格型监管工具虽然难以有效调控短期资本流出和流入,但对国家外汇储备增减具有重要的影响;价格型监管工具和利差对汇率具有显著影响。相关监管工具对经常账户下的跨境资本流动的最终目标影响十分有限,价格型监管工具连同汇率对资本与金融账户下的跨境资本流动的最终目标具有一定的影响。这意味着,现有的跨境资本流动宏观审慎监管工具监管效果有限,需要寻求和设计新的监管工具,体现宏观总量和逆周期调控的特征;日常监管应充分发挥市场化手段的作用,但在资本外逃严重等非常时期,可考虑采取外汇管理政策实现国际收支平衡。

Through establishing a macro-prudential regulatory framework for cross-border capital flows including the regulatory tools,the operational target and the ultimate goal,this paper makes use of China's data from January 2010 to March 2020 to inspect the effect of regulatory tools on the operational objectives and the ultimate goal.The findings show that the existing macro-prudential reg-ulatory tools have no significant efect on the cross-border capital outlow and inflow under the cur-rent account.The full-caliber cross-border financing management plays a certain role in regulating short-term capital flows.Though the price-type regulatory tools such as bank foreign exchange settle-ment and sale,foreign exchange risk reserve and domestic deposit reserve ratio of overscas financial institutions are diffcult to efectively regulate short-term capital outflows and inflows,they are playing an important role in inereasing or decreasing the state s foreign exchange reserves.The price-type reg-ulatory tools and interest margin have a significant impact on the exchange rate.The relative regulato-ry tools has a very limited impact on the ultimate goal of cross-border capital flow under the current account,the price-type regulatory tools together with exchange rates have a certain impact on the ulti-mate goal of eross-horder eapital flow under the eapital and finaneial aceounts.This indicates that the existing macro-prudential regulatory tools for cross-border capital flows only have limited regulatory efects,it is necessary to seek and design new regulatory tools to reflect the characteristics of macro-variables and counter-cyelical regulation and control.The daily regulation should give full play t0 the means of market,but during such harsh times as severe capital flight,it can be taken into consideration to adopt foreign exchange management policies,so as to achieve the balance of intema-tional payments.