明清时期中国东部高温事件年表重建和分析

Reconstruction and analysis of chronology of high temperature events in eastern China during Ming and Qing dynasties

气候变化的背景下,极端暖事件的频率有增加的趋势。通过"语义差异法"识别了明清时期的高温事件,对其高温程度进行分级,建立了1350—1910年中国东部的高温事件年表,并对高温事件的发生时间、年代际特征进行了分析。结果表明:明清时期有41个年份记录了高温事件,36个年份出现极端高温事件;高温事件发生频率和强度存在一定的阶段性变化,这种阶段性变化与北半球及中国气温的冷暖阶段变化有一定对应,与极端冷事件频率基本呈反相变化,1700—1749年和1800—1859年是明清时期极端高温事件发生频率最高且强度最大的2个时段,分别对应小冰期中期1710—1760年较温暖的时期和小冰期末期,16世纪末至17世纪是小冰期中最寒冷的一个阶段,极端高温事件相对不频繁,极端冷事件则发生频繁;高温事件还具有连年或隔年再发的特点。尝试利用现代器测资料和站点相关的计算方法对高温事件记录点所可能反映的地理范围进行了探讨,长江下游地区和华北平原的案例分析表明,历史时期记录有限,但区域的单点高温记录可能反映了范围比较广的极端高温事件。

The frequency of extreme warming events tends to increase under the background of climate change.The high temperature events in Ming and Qing dynasties were identified and their severity was graded based on the semantic difference method.The chronology of high temperature events between1350 and 1910 in eastern China was established and their occurrence time and interdecadal characteristics was analyzed.The results show that high temperature events occurred in 41 years of Ming and Qing dynasties,and extreme high temperature events occurred in 36 years.The frequency and intensity of high temperature events present a certain change in phase,which corresponds to the change of temperature in the cold and warm period in the northern Hemisphere,especially China,and is in reverse variation trend with the frequency of extreme cold events.During two periods,i.e.,1700 to 1749 and 1800 to 1859,there were the highest frequency and intensity of extreme high temperature events in the Ming and Qing dynasties,corresponding to the warmer period of the middle Little Ice Age and the late Little Ice Age from 1710 to 1760 respectively.From the late 16 th century to the 17 th century,it was the coldest period in the Little Ice Age.The extreme high temperature events were relatively infrequent and extreme cold events occurred frequently.High temperature events may also lasted for many years or occured a year later.We also discussed the geographical scope the temperature events by the recording points of high temperature events that are measured by modern instrumentation data and the correlation analysis of sites.The case studies in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the North China Plain show that the single-point high temperature records in the study region may reflect a wide range of extreme high temperature events though there are limited records of historical period.