中国电力系统低碳发展分析模型构建与转型路径比较

Model Construction and Pathways of Low-Carbon Transition of China's Power System

中国提出的碳达峰目标和碳中和愿景对能源电力碳减排提出了更高要求,电力系统的清洁低碳转型路径亟待探索。首先,从能源电力领域的碳排放现状出发,明确了能源电力在碳减排中的定位。其次,针对电力近中期低碳发展形势,构建了考虑碳排放外部成本的规划模型,开展了量化展望分析;针对远期低碳发展情景,打破不同能源系统边界,创新性地提出了电-氢协同路径和电-氢-碳协同路径,并构建了适用于新能源多元化利用方式的全链条技术经济评价模型,对氢气、甲醇等终端产品的经济竞争力进行了评估。

The goal of carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 proposed by Chinese government has brought higher requirements for carbon emission reduction in energy and electricity.The clean and low-carbon transition pathways for the power system need to be explored urgently.Firstly,based on an investigation of the current status of carbon emissions in the energy and power sector,the paper clarifies the role of energy and power in carbon emissions reduction in China.Secondly,according to the carbon development situation of electric power in the near and mid-term,a quantitative calculation model considering the external cost of carbon emissions is constructed.For the long-term low-carbon development scenarios,the synergistic pathways of electricityhydrogen and electricity-hydrogen-carbon are innovatively proposed,breaking the boundaries of different energy systems.Furthermore,a whole-chain techno-economic evaluation model is built,which is suitable for the diversified utilization of new energy,and has been applied to evaluation of the economic competitiveness of the end products such as hydrogen and methanol.