基于偏离-份额法的河北省畜产品结构影响因素研究

Study on Influencing Factors of Livestock Product Structure in Hebei Province Based on Shift-share Method

本文以河北省畜产品产量为研究对象,采用偏离-份额分析方法对河北省2000~2016年畜产品产量以及畜产品结构的变化进行研究。针对河北省畜产品生产状况,选择与畜产品生产密切相关的26个因子进行地理探测器因子探测,并得出河北省畜产品产量的主要影响因素。结果表明:河北省畜产品产量持续增长且大于全国增长水平,河北省畜产品结构相对合理,但在全国范围内畜产品生产竞争力不足。影响河北省畜产品生产的最主要因素是产品的市场需求和生产成本,因此,河北省应该在扩大需求和降低生产成本方面进行努力。

In this paper,the output of livestock products in Hebei Province was taken as the research object,and the shift-share analysis method was used to study the changes of the output and structure of livestock products in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2016.According to the production status of livestock products in Hebei Province,26 factors closely related to the production of livestock products were selected for factor detection by geographic detector,and the main influencing factors of livestock product production in Hebei Province were obtained.The results showed that:the output of livestock products in Hebei Province continued to grow and exceeded the national growth level,the structure of livestock products in Hebei Province was relatively reasonable,but the competitiveness of livestock products in the whole country was insufficient.The main factors affecting the production of livestock products in Hebei Province are market demand and production cost.Therefore,Hebei Province should make efforts to expand demand and reduce production cost.