汾河兰村—二坝流域径流模拟及气候变化对径流影响研究

Runoff Simulation of Lancun Station to Fenhe Erba Station Watershed of Fenhe River and the Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff

以汾河兰村—二坝区间流域为研究对象,建立研究区SWAT分布式径流模拟模型,并利用SWAT-CUP程序SUFI-2算法进行模型敏感性分析及参数率定,进一步将率定好的模型应用于气候变化条件下的径流响应分析,为区域水资源管理决策提供理论依据与技术支持。径流模拟结果表明:模拟期的各项精度评价指标均达到乙级,SWAT模型在研究区径流模拟的适用性较好。气候变化条件下径流响应分析表明:径流变化与温度变化呈负相关,且随着温度变幅的增加,径流减小速率减缓,温度影响效应减弱;径流变化与降雨变化呈正相关,且随着降雨变幅的增加,径流量增加速率加大,降雨影响效应加强;相同的径流响应,气温与降雨的变化基本呈线性变化关系,即气温增加0.5℃的径流效应与降雨平均减少0.49%(变化幅度0.38%~0.67%)的径流效应等效。

Taking the Lancun Station to Fenhe Erba Station watershed of Fen River as the study area,the SWAT distributed runoff simulation model in the research area is established.The SUFI-2 algorithm in SWAT-CUP is used for model sensitivity analysis and parameter calibration.Then the calibrated model is further applied to runoff response analysis under the condition of climate change.The results would provide a theoretical basis and technical support for regional water resources management decision.The results of runoff simulation show that all the accuracy evaluation indexes of the simulation period meet the standard class B.SWAT model has good applicability in runoff simulation in the study area.The runoff response analysis under the condition of climate change shows that the runoff change is negatively related to the temperature change,and with the increase in temperature variation,the rate of runoff decrease slows down,and the temperature effect weakens.The runoff change is positively related to the rainfall change,and with the increase in rainfall variation,the runoff increases with the increase in acceleration rate,the effect of precipitation is strengthened.For the same runoff response,the relationship between temperature and rainfall is basically linear,that is to say,the runoff effect of 0.5℃increase in temperature is equivalent to that of 0.49%(range of change 0.38%~0.67%)decrease in rainfall.