“孟中印缅”经济走廊倡议促进中国对外直接投资了吗?——基于倍差法的实证研究

Does the BCIM Economic Corridor Initiative Promote China’s OFDI?An Empirical Study Based on DID

作为"一带一路"六大经济走廊之一,"孟中印缅"经济走廊的建设对于推动中国与南亚、东南亚国家的经济一体化发展意义重大。运用2003—2017年中国对南亚8国、东盟10国的OFDI数据,采用双重差分法定量考察"孟中印缅"经济走廊倡议对中国OFDI的影响效应。研究发现,"孟中印缅"经济走廊建设促进了中国对孟加拉国、印度和缅甸三国的投资,该倡议的促进程度约为50%,充分证实了倡议的有效性。"孟中印缅"经济走廊建设拉动基础设施建设,促进产业集聚,改善合作区域硬环境;同时,走廊建设提高了地区制度质量,提升了贸易和投资的便利化程度,改善区域软环境,最终促进中国OFDI的进入。未来,中国应积极开展同孟加拉国、印度、缅甸三国的磋商谈话,进一步推动"孟中印缅"经济走廊的深度合作。

As one of the six major economic corridors of the"Belt and Road Initiative",the construction of the"Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar"(BCIM)Economic Corridor Initiative is of great significance to promote the economic integration and the development of South and Southeast Asian countries.Using the outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)data of eight south Asian countries and 10 ASEAN countries between 2003 to 2017,the article quantitatively examines the impact of the BCIM Economic Corridor Initiative on China’s OFDI by the method of DID.The study finds out that the construction of the economic corridor has promoted China’s investment into Bangladesh,India and Myanmar,with the promotion degree of about 50%.The result fully demonstrates the effectiveness of the initiative.The construction of BCIM economic corridor has stimulated infrastructure construction,promoted industrial agglomeration,and improved the hard environment of the cooperation area.Meanwhile,the construction of the corridor has improved the regional institution quality,enhanced the convenience in trade and investment,improved the soft environment of the cooperation area,and ultimately driven China’s OFDI.In the future,China should carry out more consultations and talks with Bangladesh,India,and Myanmar to further promote the flourishing development of the BCIM Economic Corridor.