2004—2019年包头市丙型肝炎流行病学特征分析与发病趋势预测

Analysis on epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis C in Baotou City from 2004-2019 and forecast on incidence tendency

目的分析2004—2019年包头市丙型肝炎(简称丙肝)流行特征,并进行短期发病趋势预测,为疾病防治工作提供参考依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法对传染病报告信息管理系统中报告的2004—2019年包头市丙肝病例数据进行分析,并使用指数平滑法预测2020—2025年包头市丙肝发病趋势。结果 2004—2019年包头市累计报告丙肝9 506例,年均发病率为23.22/10万,2017年发病率最高为37.31/10万;发病率整体呈上升趋势(χ2趋势=1 128.696,P<0.01),发病数、发病率的平均增长速度分别为14.12%和12.69%。城区发病高于农牧区(χ^(2)=9.874,P<0.01);发病人群集中在2040岁,报告病例数占病例总数的60.87%;人群发病居前五位的职业是家务待业(32.95%)、其他不详职业(25.85%)、离退休人员(14.31%)、农民(10.76%)和工人(8.24%);男性高于女性(χ^(2)=633.225,P<0.01),男女性别比为1.84∶1;报告病例数呈现一定的季节性差异(χ^(2)=145.211,P<0.01),3月报告病例数最多(1 011例)。使用Winters相加模型预测2020—2025年平均发病率分别为28.353 4/10万、30.162 7/10万、31.971 4/10万、33.780 2/10万、35.589 4/10万和37.397 8/10万,2020—2025年包头市丙肝发病率较2019年水平将呈现上升趋势。结论 2004—2019年包头市丙肝发病处于较高水平,应结合实际流行病学特征及预测情况制定防控丙肝策略,合理规划、分配卫生资源,防止丙肝传播流行,力争早日实现消除丙 肝目标。

Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics of hepatitis C in Baotou City from 2004-2019,make short-term forecast of incidence tendency,and provide reference for prevention and control. Methods Describe epidemiological methods were used to analyze the data of hepatitis C in Baotou City from 2004-2019 reported by the information management system of communicable diseases. Exponential smoothing method was adopted to forecast the incidence tendency of hepatitis C in Baotou City from 2020-2025. Results Totally 9 506 cases of hepatitis C were reported in Baotou City from 2004-2019,the average annual incidence rate was 23.22/lakh,and the incidence rate in 2017 was the highest,which was 37.31/lakh. The incidence rate was on the rise(χ^(2) _(trend)=1 128.696,P<0.01). The average growth rate of newly-emerging cases and incidence rate was 14.12% and 12.69%respectively. The incidence rate in urban area was higher than that in agricultural and pastoral area (χ^(2)=9.874,P<0.01). The patients were mainly aged 20-40 years old,and the cases accounted for 60.87% of the total cases. The top five occupations were unemployed(32.95%),other unknown occupations(25.85%),retirees(14.31%),farmers(10.76%) and workers(8.24%). The incidence rate of males was higher than that of females (χ^(2)=633.225,P<0.01 )with the sex ratio being 1.84 ∶1. The number of reported cases showed a certain seasonal difference (χ^(2)=145.211,P<0.01),with the number of March being the highest(1 011 cases).In the predicti on using winters additive model,the average annual incidence rate from 2020-2025 was 28.353 4/lakh,30.162 7/lakh,31.971 4/lakh,33.780 2/lakh,35.589 4/10 and 37.397 8/lakh,respectively. The incidence rate of hepatitis C in Baotou City from 2020-2025 will increase compared with that in 2019. Conclusion The incidence of hepatitis C in Baotou City from 2004-2019 has been on a relatively high level. It is necessary to formulate the prevention and control strategy of hepatitis C by combining the actual epidemiological characteristics and prediction,and reasonably plan and allocate health resources,so as to prevent the spread of hepatitis C,and strive to achieve the goal of eliminating hepatitis C as soon as possible.