我国离婚现状与影响因素分析

Analysis of the Current Situation and Influencing Factors of Divorce in China

2010~2018年,我国登记离婚率总体呈上升趋势。在分析我国离婚现状的基础上,运用有序Probit回归、Dagum基尼系数以及地理探测器等工具,分析影响我国离婚率的因素。结果表明,性别比和个人可支配收入对离婚率具有负向作用,受教育程度和抚养比对离婚率具有正向效应,地区生产总值、宽带接入数和城镇登记失业率对离婚率也具有正向效应;中国离婚率的空间非均衡性较为明显,超变密度是中国离婚率空间非均衡的主要来源;从驱动因素看,教育水平是离婚率空间非均衡的内在主导因素,网络普及度和抚养义务为影响离婚率空间非均衡的次要内在因素。从思想观念、社会保障以及法律体系建设等方面发力,可以改善我国当前离婚现状。

From 2010 to 2018,Chinese registered divorce rate showed an overall upward trend.On the basis of analyzing the current situation of divorce in our country,we use Ordered Probit Regression,Dagum Gini Coefficient and geographic detector to analyze the factors that affect the divorce rate in our country.The results show that gender ratio and personal disposable income have a negative effect on the divorce rate while education level and dependency ratio have a positive effect on the divorce rate.In addition,regional GDP,broadband access,and urban registered unemployment rate also have a positive effect on the divorce rate;the spatial imbalance of China’s divorce rate is more obvious,and hypervariable density is the main source of the spatial imbalance of China’s divorce rate;from the perspective of driving factors,education level is the internal leading factor for the spatial imbalance of the divorce rate and internet penetration and maintenance obligations are the secondary internal factors that affect the spatial imbalance of the divorce rate.Efforts from ideological concepts,social security,and legal system construction can improve the current divorce situation in China.