自贸区建设背景下青岛港对城市产业结构升级的影响

Influence of Qingdao Port on Urban Industrial Structure Upgrading in Context of Free Trade Zone Construction

为研究港口竞争力对青岛市产业结构升级的影响机制,通过熵权TOPSIS法构建自贸区建设背景下的港口综合竞争力评价模型,并将评价结果引入VAR模型,通过回归分析和脉冲响应分析,分别从静动态两个角度考察港口竞争力对青岛产业结构的影响。结果表明:港口对青岛市三大产业均存在正向作用,第二三产业拉动效果最为显著。对于第二产业而言,港口对其拉动作用在前期相对较高,但在中后期拉动作用将不再明显,而港口对城市第三产业的拉动作用呈逐步上升之势,有相对较大的发展潜力。最后结合青岛市产业发展现状,分析原因并提出针对性建议。

In order to study the impact mechanism of port competitiveness on the upgrading of the industrial structure of Qingdao,we constructed the port comprehensive competitiveness evaluation model in context of free trade zone construction using the entropy TOPSIS method,introduced the evaluation results into a VAR model,and through regression analysis and impulse response analysis,examined the impact of port competitiveness on the industrial structure of Qingdao both from the static and dynamic perspectives.The result showed that the port industry had positive effect on the three major industries in Qingdao,and the most significant pulling effect for the secondary and tertiary industries.For the secondary industry,the port had relatively high pulling effect in the early stage,which would lapse over the middle and later stages,while the pulling effect of the port on the tertiary industries would gradually increase over the long run and showed great development potential.Finally,in connection with the status quo of the industrial development in Qingdao,we analyzed the reasons for the existing problems and proposed well-targeted suggestions for their solution.