实际有效汇率对服务贸易出口的影响--基于全球价值链嵌入视角

The effect of real effective exchange rate on service trade exports--Based on the perspective of global value chain

论文在全球价值链框架下,构建全球价值链实际有效汇率与多国服务贸易出口模型,以此探讨全球价值链前向与后向联系加强是否削弱汇率对服务贸易出口的影响。研究结果表明,全球价值链实际有效汇率对服务贸易出口有正向影响,全球价值链前向参与度提高能够弱化汇率对服务贸易出口的影响,并且当全球价值链后向参与度上升时汇率对服务贸易出口的促进影响也会被削弱。因此,汇率作为调整贸易出口的政策手段需要被审慎利用,各国应遵循不同要素禀赋的特点参与到全球价值链各分工环节之中。

Under the framework of global value chains(GVC),this paper constructs a global value chain real effective exchange rate and a multi-country service trade export model to explore whether the strengthening of the forward and backward links of the global value chain weakens the impact of exchange rates on service trade exports.The research results show that the real effective exchange rate of global value chain has a positive impact on service trade exports.The increase in forward participation of global value chain can weaken the impact of exchange rate on service trade exports.When the backward participation of global value chain increases,the promotion effect of exchange rate on the export of service trade will also be weakened.Therefore,the exchange rate as a policy tool to adjust trade exports needs to be used cautiously.Countries should follow the characteristics of different factor endowments to participate in the division of labor in the global value chain.