世界核电工业发展及地理格局综合解析

Comprehensive analysis of world geography of nuclear power industry

核电工业的发展和布局,与国际气候变化谈判、地缘政治和国家安全、以及国家竞争优势等密切相关,对全球核电工业空间格局演变及国家核电产业竞争力的研究具有重要的理论与实践意义。基于世界34个核电国家和198座核电厂数据,本文首先梳理了世界核电工业的发展阶段和空间布局;进一步运用综合评价指标体系、弦图、网络拓扑关系图,从产业链和贸易网络角度综合评价国家核电产业竞争力,从而对世界核电工业地理格局进行了多维度剖析。结果表明:核电在发达国家能源生产中的比例总体呈下降趋势;核电工业宏观布局现以欧美为主,但亚洲正成为全球核电工业布局的重心区域;全球核电厂微观区位布局主要靠近电力需求集中的人口和经济密集区;国家间核电产业竞争力差异显著,国家地位呈现明显的等级体系和中心-外围结构,地缘邻近性和集团化特征明显,美国、俄罗斯等核电强国居垄断地位。本研究以期为中国核电产业发展提供国际经验借鉴,并从增强核电产业链核心环节竞争力的角度提出建议。

The development of nuclear power industry is closely related to international climate change negotiation,global production chain,geopolitics and national security,as well as national industrial competitiveness.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the spatial evolution and national competitiveness of nuclear power industry.After outlining the evolving stages of nuclear power industry in the world,this paper analyzed the geographical characteristics of nuclear power industry from both national perspective in the whole world and locational perspective of 198 nuclear power plants in different countries.Furthermore,the competitive advantages of the nuclear power industry of 34 nuclear power countries in operation were evaluated by combining the comprehensive evaluation indicators with the complex network analysis of trade flows between countries.The competitive differences among countries were also compared from the detailed aspects of the support capacity of ore minerals,nuclear equipment and parts,and the scale capacity of nuclear power plants in operation.The main results are as follows.Firstly,there are great differences among countries towards the development strategy of nuclear power industry.Although the global nuclear power capacities in operation are mainly concentrated in the developed countries currently,Asia will become the center of global nuclear power industry in near future with the expansion of nuclear power capacities in Asian countries.Secondly,the nuclear power plants are mainly located in regions close to the densely populated areas that have a large demand of electricity,even though the physical geography and economic level vary greatly among countries.Thirdly,the global trade networks of nuclear reactors and parts show an obvious hierarchical system and a core-periphery structure,indicating that the competitiveness and centrality of main nuclear power countries are more powerful.On the whole,the United States,Russia,Canada,France and China rank among the top five countries in terms of comprehensive competitiveness in nuclear power industry.Finally,suggestions for the developmental strategy of China's nuclear power industry are provided.With the emergence of new nuclear power countries and expanding demand markets of nuclear energy,the balance and the flow pattern of the existing international nuclear power industry will be reconstructed,which urges China to make a comprehensive plan and strategic pathway for its nuclear power industry development with special attention being paid to the whole production chain.