基于犯罪模式理论的犯罪出行空间特征与影响因素——以长春市南关区扒窃为例

Spatial characteristics and influencing factors analysis of journey-to-crime based on crime pattern theory:A study of theft crime in Nanguan District,Changchun

犯罪出行是犯罪地理学的重要研究议题,在犯罪防控、侦破等警务实践中具有突出的技术贡献。受制于研究数据的限制,中国犯罪出行实证研究较为缺乏。论文研究了2010—2016年长春市南关区扒窃犯罪出行的空间模式与影响因素,并指出:①2010—2016年长春市南关区扒窃犯罪出行平均距离为5.74 km,存在明显的空间衰减效应,空间模式为就近掠夺,在距离犯罪者居住地2 km处出现犯罪缓冲区。②南关区扒窃犯罪高发区与犯罪群体主要聚居地在空间上呈现重叠,该区域犯罪以就近掠夺的空间模式为主。③回归模型验证了犯罪者人口属性中性别、户籍地、是否就业和具有前科劣迹、涉案金额、犯罪地点所属类型对于出行距离的显著影响,其中户籍地变量为理解转型期中国大城市犯罪行为具有一定意义。

Journey-to-crime is a behavioral process of criminals searching for the targets and places that meet the needs of crime.It measures the spatial distance of the criminal from the initial location to the predetermined location.This is an important technical contribution of criminal geography in crime prevention,case detection and other police practices.Restricted by the limited research data,empirical research on journey-to-crime in China is relatively lacking.This paper studies the spatial pattern and influencing factors of journey-to-crime in pickpocketing in Nanguan District of Changchun from 2010 to 2016.The paper points out that:1)The average distance of journey-to-crime in the study area from 2010 to 2016 is 5.74 kilometers,which shows an obvious spatial attenuation effect.The spatial pattern is plunder nearby,and there is a crime buffer zone,2 kilometers away from the criminal′s residence;2)There is an overlap in space of the areas with high incidence of pickpocketing crime and the residence of crime groups.And the spatial pattern of crime in this area is mainly plunder nearby;3)By constructing a sequencing logit model,the influence of the uncertainty of measuring journey-to-crime distance on analysis results can be weakened.The regression model verifies the significant impact of gender,domicile,employment and criminal record,amount of money involved and type of crime location on journey-to-crime distance.Among them,the positive correlation between the amount of money involved and the travel distance verifies the prediction of the rational choice theory on criminal motivation.Based on the case study of pickpocketing crime in China′s big cities,this paper indicates that the average journey-to-crime distance,spatial pattern and influencing factors of pickpocketing crime in China and western cities are similar or consistent,which further promotes the combination of criminal geography on criminal behavior research between China and Western countries.Through analyzing the influence of the residence of crime groups on their journey pattern,the urban crime phenomenon and the social management problems of floating population in China under the background of high-speed urbanization can be hopefully reflected upon,thereby expanding the current literature on journey-to-crime.This paper is of a practical significance to criminal profiling,crime risk assessing in residential space,guiding crime prevention and assisting case detection.