“营改增”、市场化进程与经济效应——来自中国外贸上市企业的经验证据

Replacement of Business Tax by VAT,Marketization Process and Economic Effect:Empirical Evidence from China’s Listed Foreign Trade Companies

以2010—2015年中国外贸上市企业为样本,检验“营改增”对外贸上市企业税负与企业价值的影响,结果发现:“营改增”显著降低了企业税负,提高了企业价值,且上述结论在市场化水平更低的地区更加显著;路径分析表明,“营改增”可以通过增加企业的税收返还来改善企业价值。进一步考虑政策实施时长的影响发现,“营改增”的减税效益存在滞后效应,且税负的缓慢降低会伴随着企业价值的显著增加。以上结果可为利益相关者评价“营改增”的经济效应提供有益借鉴。

Based on the sample of listed foreign trade companies in China from 2010 to 2015,this paper tests the impact of the replacement of business tax by VAT on tax burden and company value.The result shows that the replacement of business tax by VAT has significantly reduced the tax burden and improved the company value,which are more pronounced in provinces with low marketization.Path analysis shows that the replacement of business tax by VAT improves company value by increasing the tax returns.Furthermore,there is a lag effect on the tax reduction benefits of the replacement of business tax by VAT,and the slow decline in tax burden is accompanied with a significant increase in the value of the company.The above evidence can provide useful reference for relevant parties to evaluate the economic effects of the replacement of business tax by VAT.