塔里木河流域水资源-经济社会-生态环境耦合系统和谐程度量化分析

Quantitative analysis on harmony degree of water resources-economic society-ecological environment coupling system in the Tarim River Basin

为科学评价塔里木河流域水资源-经济社会-生态环境耦合系统和谐程度,明晰影响其和谐发展的主要因素,系统考虑水资源禀赋、地区发展水平、生态环境状况等多个方面,构建了水资源-经济社会-生态环境耦合系统和谐程度评价指标体系,运用组合权重SMI-P法定量测算了2007—2016年塔里木河流域5地州各子系统及耦合系统的和谐程度。结果表明:时间维度上,各地州耦合系统和谐程度均有所提升,但提升速度及幅度存在差异,且目前均未达到基本和谐状态,大多处于接近不和谐状态;空间维度上,巴音郭楞蒙古自治州耦合系统和谐程度最好,是目前唯一达到较和谐程度的地区,其次为克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州和阿克苏地区,而和田及喀什地区则明显落后于其他3个地区;各子系统对耦合系统和谐度提升的贡献从大到小依次为生态环境、经济社会、水资源,且贡献率时空差异显著;各地州和谐发展水平仍存在较大提升空间,应在协调多系统均衡发展的同时着重突破各自薄弱环节。

In order to scientifically evaluate the harmony degree of water resources-economic society-ecological environment coupling system in the Tarim River Basin and make clear the main factors that affect its harmonious development,a harmony evaluation index system of water resources-economic society-ecological environment coupling system is constructed,considering water resources endowment,regional development level and ecological environment condition.The harmony degree of each subsystem and coupling system in five regions of Tarim River Basin from 2007 to 2016 was quantitatively calculated by using combination weight SMI-P method.The results show that,in time dimension,the harmony degree of coupling system has been improved,but there are differences in speed and range,and none of them has reached the basic harmonious state,most of them are in the non-harmonious state;in spatial dimension,Bazhou coupling system is the best,and it is the only region to reach a relatively harmony degree,followed by Kezhou and Aksu Prefecture,while Hotan and Kashgar Prefecture are obviously behind the other three regions;the contribution of each subsystem to the harmony degree of the coupling system is ecological environment,economic society and water resources from big to small,and the contribution rate has significant space-time difference;there is still much room to improve the harmonious development level of each state.We should break through their weak links while coordinating the balanced development of multi-system.