美国的政策转向与南海形势新动向

An Analysis of the U.S.Policy Turn and the Trend of the Situation in the South China Sea

过去十数年来,美国利用其综合影响力不断在南海地区制造纠纷,以维持其自身霸权,压制中国发展,防堵中国在南海半闭海社区成为真正的领袖。随着美国2020年总统大选的落幕,新一届美国政府面对前任总统制造的障碍,势必要进行严肃的政府改造。就南海局势而言,拜登或将继续其当年在参议院领导外交委员会时的理想,推动美国加入《联合国海洋法公约》,但成功的几率仍然较低。无论美国是否加入该公约,也不论南海是否会出现法律环境的战略性改变,美国新政府都可能在南海改变政治手段,改采更加细致的法律战路线,加强国际法理层面的斗争。对此,中国应采取"小破大立"的路线,说明自身立场,补强相关法律,将南海社区的概念落到实处。

Over the past ten plus years,the U.S.has used its comprehensive influence to spark disputes in the South China Sea,in order to maintain its hegemony,suppress China’s development,and prevent China from becoming a real leader in the semi-closed community of the South China Sea.In the wake of the U.S.2020 presidential election,the newly-formed Biden administration is bound to carry out serious government reform in the face of the obstacles created by the former president.As far as the situation in the South China Sea is concerned,Biden may continue his ideal when he led the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Senate and make the U.S.join the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea(UNCLOS),though with a low possibility of success.Whether or not the U.S.accedes to the UNCLOS,and whether or not there will be a strategic change in the legal environment of the South China Sea,the new U.S.government may change its political means in the South China Sea,adopt a more detailed line of legal warfare,and intensify the attack at the international legal level.Hence,China should adopt the line of"a small issue teaches a big lesson",explain its own position,make up the deficient laws,and implement the concept of South China Sea community.