人类活动对长江流域尺度降水变化的可能影响研究

Possible Impact of Human Activities on Basin Scale Precipitation

近年来,受全球变暖趋势所影响,我国极端天气逐渐增多,尤其是极端降水。本文以长江流域为例,利用CAM5.1-ldegree模式对长江流域在All-Hist情景和Nat-Hist情景下的降水数据进行评估,以此分析人类活动对流域尺度降水变化的影响。

In recent years,affected by the trend of global warming,the number of extreme weather events in China is gradually increasing,especially the extreme precipitation events.Based on this situation,this paper will take the Yangtze River Basin as an example,and use the cam5.1-ldegree model to evaluate the precipitation data of the Yangtze River Basin under all hist scenario and NAT hist scenario,focusing on the possible impact of human activities on the basin-scale precipitation change,for reference only.