双边自由贸易协定是否降低了中国的对外投资壁垒?--基于三阶段DEA与PSM-DID模型的考察

Does Bilateral Free Trade Agreement Reduce Barriers to China s Overseas Investment?-An Empirical Test Based on 3-stage DEA and PSM-DID Model

近年来,随着“逆全球化”风潮和保护主义的盛行以及中国企业竞争力的增强,中国对外投资正在面临愈发严重的障碍。而在WTO多边框架遇阻的情况下,双边自由贸易协定已经成为支撑贸易与投资自由化的重要依托。在上述背景下,基于中国与179个经济体的双边投资存量数据,在引力模型框架下采用三阶段DEA方法测度了中国2003—2018年的对外投资壁垒,并利用基于组内均值匹配样本的双重差分(DID)模型实证检验了自由贸易协定在降低对外投资壁垒方面的效果。结果表明:在样本期内,中国的对外投资壁垒特别是对于发达经济体的投资壁垒总体呈上升态势,而双边自由贸易协定的签署可以成为打破这一壁垒的有效途径;双边自由贸易协定的政策效果存在较长的持续性,且这种持续性在发展中经济体之间更为明显;同时,参与“一带一路”倡议有助于促进双边自由贸易协定在降低投资壁垒方面的政策效果。基于上述结论,未来中国应进一步促进与相关经济体特别是发展中经济体的自由贸易谈判,继续推进“一带一路”建设,扩大对外经贸交流,加快中国企业对外投资的进程。

In recent years,with the trend of anti-globalization and the prevalence of protectionism,as well as the enhanced competitiveness of Chinese enterprises,China s overseas investment is facing more and more serious obstacles.In the face of obstacles to the WTO multilateral framework,bilateral free trade agreements(FTAs)have become an important support for trade and investment liberalization.Under the above-mentioned background,based on the stock data of bilateral investment between China and 179 economies,this paper uses the 3-stage DEA method to measure China s outbound investment barriers in the years from 2003 to 2018 under the framework of gravity model,and uses the difference-in-differences(DID)model based on matched samples of intra-group mean to empirically test the effect of a free trade agreement(FTA)on reducing the barriers to overseas investment.The results show that in the sample period,the barriers to China’s overseas investment are generally on the rise,especially in the developed economies.The signing of bilateral free trade agreements can be an effective way to break the barriers.The policy effect of bilateral free trade agreements has a relatively long duration which is more obvious among developing economies.At the same time,the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)helps promote policy effect of bilateral free trade agreement to reduce barriers to investment.Based on the above conclusions,in the future China should further promote the free trade talks with the relative economies,especially with developing economies,continue to push forward the BRI construction,expand foreign economic and trade exchanges,accelerate the process of overseas investment by Chinese enterprises,etc.