基于Mann-Kendall法的房山区降水量时空分布变化趋势分析

Analysis of temporal and spatial distribution trend of precipitation in Fangshan District based on Mann-Kendall method

本文运用Mann-Kendall法对房山区20个雨量站1980—2013年降水量时空分布及其变化趋势进行了分析研究。结果表明:房山区春、秋、冬降水量变化均呈显著增加态势,降水量增加的趋势自1985年前后开始,该区降水集中在夏季且变化趋势并不显著,造成区域全年降水量虽呈整体增多趋势,但增加并不显著;降水量空间分布呈现西部山区向东部平原递减趋势;区域内降水时空变化趋势分析结果显示,在春、秋、冬三季各雨量站降水量均呈增多趋势,形成以史家营乡为中心的降水增幅高值区,夏季东部平原降水明显减少,以房山、葫芦垡两站降水量下降趋势最为显著。

In this paper,Mann-Kendall method is used to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution and variation trend of precipitation in 20 rainfall stations in Fangshan District from 1980 to 2013. The results showed that the precipitation in Fangshan District increased significantly in spring,autumn and winter,and the trend of precipitation increase began around1985. The precipitation in this area was concentrated in summer and the change trend was not significant,which caused the annual precipitation in the region to increase as a whole,but the increase was not significant. The spatial distribution of precipitation shows a decreasing trend from the western mountainous area to the eastern plain. The results of spatial and temporal variation trend analysis of precipitation in the region show that the precipitation stations are increasing in spring,autumn and winter,forming a high-value area of precipitation increase with Shijiaying Township as the center,and the precipitation in the eastern plain is obviously reduced in summer,especially in Fangshan and Hulufa stations.