新安江模型在江西省万安水库流域洪水预报的应用研究

A study on application of Xin’anjiang model in flood forecasting of Wan’an Reservoir basin in Jiangxi

近年来江西省建立了中小河流水文预警预报系统,本文以万安水库流域为例,研究洪水预报方案编制中新安江模型的应用过程,对48个断面预报方案进行统计分析,总结了影响预报方案精度的因素,并提出3种提高预报方案精度的操作方式,利用现有水文站网的河道水文监测信息,可为模型率定提供充分数据;在雨量监测信息的应用过程中,自动过滤无效数据,可确保面雨量计算精度;考虑调节能力较大的水库对模型结果的影响,可以充分反映人为活动对水文循环的扰动。

In recent years,Jiangxi Province has established a hydrological early warning and forecasting system for medium and small rivers. This paper takes Wan’an Reservoir basin as an example,studies the application process of Xin’anjiang Model in the compilation of flood forecasting scheme,makes statistical analysis on 48 cross-section forecasting schemes,summarizes the factors affecting the accuracy of the forecasting scheme,and puts forward three methods to improve the accuracy of the forecasting scheme. At first,using the river water of the existing hydrological station network The monitoring information in this paper can provide sufficient data for model calibration. The second is to automatically filter the invalid data in the process of rainfall monitoring information application to ensure the accuracy of Areal Rainfall Calculation. The third one is to consider the influence of the reservoir with large regulation capacity on the model results to fully reflect the disturbance of human activities on the hydrological cycle.