改革开放40年四川省经济发展与能源消费协调发展评价

Evaluation on Coordinated Development of Economic Development and Energy Consumption in Sichuan Province During Forty Years ofReform and Opening-up

改革开放40年来四川省经济实力大幅提升,但由于能源消费总量迅速增加、能源消费效率较低等原因,经济发展与能源消费之间的矛盾愈发突出。本文构建经济发展与能源消费协调发展评价指标体系,采用耦合协调度模型对两者间的协调水平进行测度。结果表明:(1)改革开放40年来四川省经济发展水平呈上升趋势,能源消费虽有一定波动但整体也呈上升趋势,两者存在很强的正相关性,具有耦合互动发展的关系,两者关系可分为三个阶段,由经济滞后型向能源滞后型逐步转型;(2)经济发展与能源消费间耦合关系很不稳定,除1981年是低度耦合外,其余年份为拮抗性耦合,值在0.30~0.50间变化;(3)两者间耦合协调度从1978年的0.1931上升到2018年的0.6829,协调类型由严重失调型逐渐优化为中等协调型。最后提出坚持生态优先、绿色发展的原则,在产业结构、能源消费结构、单位GDP能耗等方面进行突破的建议,以期为推动成渝地区双城经济圈建设及西部地区经济社会全面协调可持续发展提供参考与借鉴。

In the past forty years of reform and opening up,the economic strength of Sichuan Province has increased substantially.However,the contradiction between economic development and energy consumption has become increasingly prominent due to the rapid increase in total energy consumption and low efficiency in energy consumption.Therefore,the evaluation index system for coordinated development of economic development and energy consumption is established in the paper and the coordination level between the two is measured by coupling coordination degree model.The results show as follows:(1)The overall economic development level of Sichuan province has reflected an upward trend in the past forty years of reform and opening up.The overall trend of energy consumption is on the rise despite of a certain fluctuation.There is a strong positive correlation of coupling and interactive development between the two,which can be roughly divided into three stages.(2)The coupling relationship between economic development and energy consumption is very unstable in that the other years are antagonistic coupling with values ranging from 0.30 to 0.50,except for the low coupling in 1981.(3)The degree of coupling coordination between the two had increased from 0.1931 in 1978 to 0.6829 in 2018.The coordination type was gradually optimized from severely disordered to moderately coordinated.In the end,it is proposed that the principle of ecological priority and green development should be adhered to,and breakthroughs should be made in industrial structure,energy consumption structure,energy consumption per unit of GDP.It is hoped that a reference is provided for promoting the construction of Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle and the comprehensive and sustainable development of economy and society in the western region.