需求不确定情况下区域港口的投资决策

Investment decisions of regional ports under demand uncertainty

针对需求不确定情况下多港口地区的多期港口投资决策问题,从政府规划角度考虑港口利润、港口经济溢出效益和消费者剩余等因素,从港口发展角度考虑港口资源的有效利用,以社会福利和区域港口资源利用率最大为目标,构建多目标优化模型。利用多目标粒子群优化算法对所建模型进行求解。以某沿海地区港口投资决策为例进行分析,得到区域港口的多期投资方案。结果显示,利用所建模型能够有效得出综合考虑多方利益的港口投资方案,为需求不确定情况下的区域港口投资决策提供参考。

In view of the multi-phase port investment decision-making issue in multi-port areas under demand uncertainty,considering port profit,port economic spillover benefit and consumer surplus from the perspective of government planning,and the effective utilization of port resources from the perspective of port development,a multi-objective optimization model is constructed with the goal of the maximum social welfare and regional port resource utilization.The model is solved by the multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm.Taking the port investment decision-making in a coastal area as an example,the multi-phase investment scheme of regional ports is obtained.The result shows that,a port investment scheme that comprehensively considers the interests of multiple parties can be effectively obtained by the model,and it provides reference for regional port investment decision-making under demand uncertainty.