资产价格泡沫的宏观调控:识别、传导和应对

Macroeconomic Regulations on Asset Price Bubbles:Identification,Transmission and Reaction

以稳物价、促增长为传统目标的宏观政策要不要以及如何对资产价格泡沫进行调控,在理论上和实践上一直存在争议:第一,资本市场的高频联动、金融摩擦、投资者的认知偏差共同造成资产泡沫的根源、泡沫规模和发展规律在识别上都极端困难。第二,利率渠道、信贷渠道、风险承担渠道等传导机制对资产泡沫产生的影响错综复杂。本文从资产泡沫的识别和泡沫的政策传导机制这两大难题出发,分析当前泡沫的宏观调控应对策略,以加深对资产价格泡沫的理解,为恰当把握好货币政策调控的时机、方向和幅度提供更多视角和思路。应对资产价格泡沫,识别是需要解决的首要问题,认清当前是否为调控泡沫的最佳时机和其未来可能的发展走向有助于在"通胀目标制"、"逆向调节"、"顺势而为"、"放松信贷"、"宏观审慎"等应对措施中做出权衡,提高宏观政策调控泡沫的针对性、精准性和有效性。

For a long time,the questions of whether or not macroeconomic policy,which aims at price stability and economic growth,should respond to asset price bubbles and how to respond,have been hotly debated both in theory and in practice.First,the high frequency and complex interaction of asset markets,financial frictions,and cognitive bias of investors induce extreme difficulty of the identification on bubbles’source,size and developing process.Second,the transmission mechanisms on bubbles,including interest rate channel,credit channel and risktaking channel,are quite intricate.This paper starts with two tough problems that bubble identifying difficulties and intricate policy transmission mechanisms,analyzing the reacting strategies of macroeconomic regulation to deepen the understanding of asset bubbles,as well as giving multiple perspectives and thoughts for researches on the time,the direction and magnitude of macro policy formulation and regulation.For policy regulation on bubbles,bubble identification is the chief issue to be addressed.Figuring out whether it is the optimal time to control asset bubbles,and its potential evolution pattern helps to make choices among the policy instruments of"Inflation Targeting","Leaning Against the Wind","Go With the Flow","Credit Easing","Macro Prudential".What is more,it also helps to promote the pertinence,accuracy,and efficacy of macro regulatory policies.