中国双向FDI协调发展与经济增长相互影响吗?——基于“双循环”背景的实证检验

Does the Coordinated Development of Two-Way FDI Interact with Economic Growth in China?——Empirical Test Based on the Background of"Dual Circulation"

通过观察一个国家的IFDI、OFDI常常与该国的经济增长呈现出正相关关系的现象,本文使用新经济地理学模型,依据对中国双向FDI协调发展与经济增长之间相互作用机理的分析,推演两者之间的空间内生性逻辑。实证方面,基于2003-2018年中国31个省域的面板数据和广义空间三阶段最小二乘(GS3SLS)估计,运用空间面板数据联立方程模型对中国双向FDI协调发展与经济增长之间相互作用的宏观效应进行了统计测度。研究表明:⑴在全国层面上,双向FDI协调发展能够促进经济增长;同时,经济增长也能够促进双向FDI的协调发展。在分样本讨论的情况下,该结论依然成立。⑵双向FDI协调发展与经济增长之间的相互影响存在空间分异。总体而言,中东部地区的双向FDI协调发展对经济增长的促进作用更为明显。此外,双向FDI协调发展与经济增长之间的相互影响关系还与产业结构升级、人均资本存量、企业所得税等有关。

By observing the fact that a country’s IFDI and OFDI often show a positive correlation with the country’s economic growth,this paper uses the new economic geography model,based on the analysis of the interaction mechanism between China’s two-way FDI coordinated development and economic growth,and deduces the spatial endogenous logic between the two.On the empirical side,the generalized spatial three-stage least squares estimator(GS3 SLS)was used to statistically measure the macroscopic effects of the interaction between the coordinated development of China’s two-way FDI and economic growth.Research shows:(1)At the national level,the coordinated development of China’s two-way FDI can promote China’s economic growth,and at the same time,China’s economic growth can also promote the coordinated development of China’s two-way FDI.In the case of sub-samples,the conclusion is still valid.(2)There is spatial heterogeneity in the mutual influence between the coordinated development of two-way FDI and economic growth.In general,the coordinated development of two-way FDI in the central and eastern regions has a more obvious positive effect on economic growth.In addition,the mutual influence between the coordinated development of two-way FDI and economic growth is also related to the upgrading of industrial structure,per capita capital stock,and corporate income tax.