“两轮限购”政策是否降低了房地产企业的经营绩效

Whether the Two Rounds of Purchase Restriction Policy has Reduced the Business Performance of Real Estate Enterprises

利用多期双重差分模型(DID)检验了房地产“两轮限购”政策对房地产企业经营绩效的影响,本研究认为:第一轮限购政策在短期内显著降低了房地产企业的经营绩效,长期则无明显效果;第二轮限购政策却显著增加了房地产企业的经营绩效。区分房地产企业的产权性质、规模和地区的进一步研究发现:第一轮限购政策对房地产企业经营绩效的负向影响在非国有企业、小规模企业、处于省会城市与非沿海城市中更显著,而第二轮限购政策对房地产企业的正向影响则在国有企业、小规模企业、处于非省会城市与沿海城市中更为显著。拓展性分析结果显示,增加(缓解)融资约束水平是第一轮(第二轮)限购政策降低(增加)房地产企业经营绩效的一个渠道机制。

This paper uses the multi period double difference model(DID)to test the impact of the two rounds of purchase restriction policy on the business performance of real estate enterprises.The results show that the first round of purchase restriction policy significantly reduces the business performance of real estate enterprises in the short term,but has no obvious effect in the long term;the second round of purchase restriction policy has no significant impact on the business performance of enterprises in the short term,but significantly increases the business performance of real estate enterprises in the long term.Further research on the property right,scale and region of real estate enterprises shows that the first round of purchase restriction policy has a more significant negative impact on the business performance of real estate enterprises in non-state-owned enterprises,small-scale enterprises,provincial capital cities and non-coastal cities,while the positive impact of the second round of purchase restriction policies on real estate enterprises is in state-owned enterprises,large-scale enterprises,non-provincial capitals and coastal cities.The results of expansibility analysis show that increasing(easing)the level of financing constraints is a channel mechanism for the first(second)round of purchase restriction policy to reduce(increase)the operating performance of real estate enterprises.