基于多级可拓方法的长输油气管道突发事故应急管理能力评估

Emergency Management Capacity Evaluation for Sudden Accidents of Long Distance Oil and Gas Pipelines Based on Multi-level Extension Evaluation Method

为更全面地评估长输油气管道突发事故的应急管理能力,减少事故发生后造成的人员伤亡和财产损失,基于物元可拓理论建立了长输油气管道突发事故应急管理能力综合评估模型。首先,根据突发事故应急管理的理论知识,构建了包含事故预防与应急准备、监测与预警、应急响应、应急恢复4个一级指标、19个二级指标和15个三级指标的长输油气管道突发事故应急管理能力评估指标体系;然后,引入层次-熵权法确定评估指标的权重,建立各评估指标的经典域与关联函数,计算关联度,进而得出长输油气管道突发事故应急管理能力水平等级;最后,应用所建立的模型对某L段管道的突发事故应急管理能力进行了评估,定量计算得出该L段管道的突发事故应急管理能力水平等级为Ⅱ级,说明该管道企业的总体应急管理能力较强,所构建模型的评估结果与实际运行情况相符,能较准确地反映长输油气管道突发事故的应急管理能力水平等级,表明该模型适用于长输油气管道突发事故应急管理能力的评估。

In order to more comprehensively evaluate the emergency management capabilities of long-distance oil and gas pipelines and reduce the casualties and property losses caused by sudden accidents,this paper establishes an assessment model based on the matter-element extension theory.Based on the theoretical knowledge of emergency management capability,the paper constructs an evaluation index system for emergency management capacity of sudden accidents of long distance oil and gas pipelines,which includes four primary indicators of accident prevention and emergency preparedness,monitoring and early warning,emergency response,and emergency recovery,19 se-condary indicators,and 15 tertiary indicators.Combined with the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy weight method,the weight coefficient of emergency management ability of oil and gas pipeline is determined,which avoids the subjectivity of weighting evaluation index.The evaluation model of emergency management ability of long oil and gas pipeline is established by the multilevel extension comprehensive evaluation method.The index system and evaluation model of emergency management capacity of long-distance oil and gas pipeline are used to verify the L pipeline.According to the principle of maximum membership,the level of emergency management capacity of L pipeline is grade II,which shows that the overall emergency capacity of the pipeline enterprise is strong.To sum up,the model established in the paper is suitable for the evaluation of emergency management ability of long-distance oil and gas pipeline,and has certain practical engineering value.