经济政策不确定性与委托贷款供给:“明哲保身”还是“行崄侥幸”

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Entrusted Loan Supply:Play Safe or Take a Chance?

采用手工搜集整理的委托贷款公告数据,研究经济政策不确定性对企业委托贷款供给的影响,结果表明,经济政策不确定性的提高显著降低了委托贷款供给,是企业规避风险的反应,表现为"明哲保身",外部融资成本和经营风险是这一影响的重要渠道。经济政策不确定性的增加显著抑制非股权关联委托贷款供给,同时降低委托贷款供给的规模、期限和笔数,进一步验证了企业面对经济政策不确定时的风险规避效应。委托贷款供给方的抗风险能力越低,外部融资依赖度越高,委托贷款借款方的风险越大,经济政策不确定性对委托贷款供给的抑制作用越强。研究结论对深入理解委托贷款供给背后的逻辑以及科学制定相关经济政策具有现实意义。

Based on manually acquired announcement data on entrusted loans,this study examined the impact of economic policy uncertainty on entrusted loan supply.The study results show that a rise in economic policy uncertainty significantly reduces entrusted loan supply and is the anti-risk response of enterprises;this impact is manifested as play-safe behavior and is implemented through external financing costs and operational risks.The rise in economic policy uncertainty significantly suppresses equity-unrelated entrusted loan supply,and reduces its scale,term,and quantity;this further proves enterprises’response of risk aversion to economic policy uncertainty.The higher the anti-risk ability of entrusted loan suppliers,the higher the degree of reliance on external financing,and the higher the risk faced by borrowers;in this case,entrusted loan supply is suppressed by economic policy uncertainty more significantly.The findings of this study will help people gain insight into the logic of entrusted loan supply and formulate economic policies more scientifically.