普惠金融与农村产业融合发展的耦合协同关系及动态演进

Study on the Coupling Cooperative Relationship and its Dynamic Evolution of Inclusive Finance and Integrated Development of Rural Industries

基于2008-2018年中国30个省份的面板数据,测算普惠金融与农村产业融合发展的耦合协调度,并采用Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计和马尔科夫链分析法研究系统耦合协调度的区域差异及分布动态演进趋势。结果表明:当前中国普惠金融和农村产业融合发展水平整体偏低,大多数省份普惠金融与农村产业融合发展的耦合协调度处于勉强协调或中度协调,两个系统的协调状态主要表现为普惠金融相对滞后;普惠金融与农村产业融合发展的耦合协调度存在较大区域差异,地区相对差异和地区绝对差异都随着农村产业融合发展试点推进而逐渐缩小。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China form 2008 to 2018,this paper measures the coupling coordination degree of inclusive financial and integrated development of rural industries,and Dagum Gini index,Kernel density estimation and Markov Chain are used to study the regional difference and dynamic evolution of these two systems.The results show that the levels of two systems are generally low,the coordination degree of two systems is barely coordinated or medium coordinated,and the level of inclusive finance lags behind the integrated development of rural industries.There are significant regional differences in the coupling degrees between the two systems,the regional relative differences and the regional absolute differences are gradually narrowed with the promotion of the pilot project of the integrated development of rural industries.