税收冲击、预期效应与中国税率弹性

Tax Shock,Anticipation Effects and Elasticity of Tax in China

基于中国宏观经济季度数据,在动态随机一般均衡模型下引入预期和未预期两类税率冲击,推导产出等内生变量关于税收冲击的政策函数,并借助描述结构向量自回归模型分析预期效应对中国税率弹性及减税政策效果的影响。研究发现:(1)短期内减税冲击(无论预期冲击还是未预期冲击)对产出、消费、投资均有扩张效应;(2)经济主体预期行为放大减税政策效果;(3)长期内预期减税政策的刺激效果优于未预期减税政策。为保障宏观经济的中高速平稳运行,未来仍应坚持实施减税举措,政府在实施减税政策之前如果能提前1〜3个季度予以公告将显著提升刺激效果。

Based on the quarterly macroeconomic data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics,this paper introduces expected and unexpected tax rate shocks under the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model,deduces the policy functions of endogenous variables,such as output on tax shocks,and analyzes the impact of expected effects on China's tax rate elasticity and tax reduction policy effects by the way of vector autoregressive model.Through study,the author comes to the following conclusions:(1)In the short term,the impact of tax reduction(whether expected shock or unexpected shock)has an expanding effect on output,consumption and investment;(2)The expected behavior of economic subjects expands the effect of tax reduction policy;(3)In the long term,the stimulating effect of expected tax reduction policy is better than that of unexpected tax reduction policy.In order to ensure the medium-speed and smooth operation of the macro-economy,we should still carry out tax reduction measures in the future.If the government can announce the tax reduction policy 1-3 quarters in advance,it will significantly enhance the stimulus effect.