中国财政政策乘数效应分析

The Analysis of Chinese Fiscal Policy Multiplier Effect

财政政策是逆周期宏观调控的重要举措,财政政策乘数高低体现了宏观政策的效果,对政府决策具有重要的参考价值。本文基于IS-LM的拓展模型,估计得到2002-2017年间的财政支出乘数在0.58到0.67之间,税收乘数在-0.22到-0.18之间,私人投资乘数在1.16到1.8之间,财政支出乘数较以往研究有较大的下降,沿用传统的刺激需求政策不可持续。通过对财政支出乘数传导机制的进一步研究发现,财政支出对居民消费的拉动作用在一定程度上被政府投资对消费的挤出效应所抵消,政府投资对私人投资的带动效应也受到财政支出挤出效应的抵消,宽松货币政策的配合可以减少财政支出挤出效应。最后基于分析给出相关政策建议。

Fiscal policy is an important measure of counter-cyclical macro-control. The multiplier of fiscal policy reflects the effect of macro-policy and has important reference value for decision-making. Based on the extended model of IS-LM, It is estimated that from 2002 to 2017, the fiscal expenditure multiplier is between 0.58 and 0.67, the tax multiplier is between -0.22 and -0.18,and the private investment multiplier is between 1.16 and 1.8.The fiscal expenditure multiplier has dropped significantly from previous studies, and the traditional demand stimulus policy is unsustainable. Through further research on the transmission mechanism of fiscal expenditure multiplier, it is found that the pulling effect of fiscal expenditure on household consumption was offset to some extent by the crowding-out effect of government investment on consumption, and the multiplier effect of government investment on private investment was also offset by the crowding-out effect of government expenditure, and the loose monetary policy can reduce the squeeze-out effect of fiscal expenditures. Finally,some policy recommendations are given based on the analysis.