最低生活保障对居民消费的驱动效应研究

Research on the Driving Effect of Minimum Living Security on Residents’ Consumption

双循环新发展格局下应更加重视国内居民消费的作用。本文采用对数平均迪氏指数分解模型(LMDI)对2007-2017年中国31个省级地方政府的面板数据进行实证分析,以检验城乡最低生活保障对居民消费支出的驱动效应。将驱动效应分解为规模效应、结构效应和效率效应三个维度,结果表明:城乡低保的驱动效应具有异质性,城镇低保的规模效应和效率效应是驱动消费增长的主要因素;农村低保的规模效应是驱动消费增长的主要因素;城乡低保的结构效应和农村低保的效率效应都有待提高。因此,应采取扩大低保资金投入规模,缩小低保标准的城乡差距,制定合理的低保给付标准等措施以改善低保的驱动效应。

Under the new dual circulation development pattern, more attention should be paid to the role of domestic residents’ consumption. This article uses the Log-Mean Divisia Index Model(LMDI) to empirically analyze the panel data of 31 provincial local governments in China from 2007 to 2017 to test the driving effect of urban and rural minimum living security on residents’ consumption expenditure. The driving effect is divided into three dimensions: scale effect, structure effect and efficiency effect. The results show that: the driving effect of urban and rural minimum living security is heterogeneous. The scale effect and efficiency effect of urban minimum living security are the main factors that drive consumption to increase;the scale effect of rural minimum living security is the main factor driving consumption growth;the structural effect of both urban and rural minimum living security need to be improved,so does the efficiency effect of rural minimum living security.Therefore, we should take measures to improve the driving effect of the minimum living standard, such as expanding the scale of capital investment, narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas, and formulating reasonable payment standards.