南美洲恐怖袭击事件时空演变研究

Study on spatio-temporal evolution of terrorist attacks in South America

采用核密度估计法和重心分析对1970-2017年南美洲恐怖袭击事件时空演变过程进行了分析。结果表明:1980-1999年是南美洲恐怖袭击事件的高发期;南美洲恐怖袭击事件空间分异显著,1970-1979年主要集中于哥伦比亚和阿根廷,高发期主要集中分布于哥伦比亚、秘鲁、智利,2000年以来主要集中分布于哥伦比亚,近年委内瑞拉、巴拉圭的恐怖袭击活动也有抬头之势。南美洲恐怖袭击事件的时空演变是由地理环境、地缘政治博弈、经济社会环境、毒品贸易、政府的应对策略和社会控制体系、武器易获得、边界管控等多因素综合作用的结果。基于上述结论和维护中国在南美洲利益的需要,提出中国应加强与南美洲国家的反恐合作。受南美洲恐怖袭击活动有跨境渗透现象且呈现"毒恐合流"现象的启示,认为中国应警惕东南亚恐怖袭击活动是否会向境内渗透并向"毒恐合流"方向发展。

The spatial-temporal evolution of the 1970-2017 South American terrorist attacks was analyzed by using Kernel Density Estimation and gravity center analysis methods.The results show that: the years 1980-1989 and 1990-1999, were the periods of the high incidence of terrorist attacks in South America;the difference in spatial distribution of South American terrorist attacks was significant.From 1970-1979, they were mainly concentrated in Colombia and Argentina, while the high incidence was mainly concentrated in Colombia, Peru and Chile.Since2000, it has been mainly concentrated in Colombia.In recent years, terrorist attacks in Venezuela and Paraguay have also risen.The spatio-temporal evolution of terrorist attacks in South America is the result of multiple factors including geographical environment, geopolitical, economic and social environment, drug trade, government’s coping strategies and social control system, easy access to weapons, border control, etc.Based on the above conclusions and the need to safeguard China’s interests in South America, This study suggests that China should strengthen its counter-terrorism cooperation with South American countries.Inspired by the cross-border infiltration of South American terrorist attacks and the phenomenon of "Terrorism and Drug Combined", This study suggests that China should be alert to the infiltration of terrorist attacks in Southeast Asia and the possibility of the "Terrorism and Drug Combined".